我国省级政府的预算支出结构在经济建设和科教文卫两个维度上分化并聚类为经济建设偏向型、科教文卫偏向型、高均衡支出型和低均衡支出型四种模式。本文基于中国省级面板数据实证研究发现：地方政府是何种预算支出模式主要受支出分权、城市化率、第三产业占比、地方财力和人口密度五个因素的影响。支出分权程度越高、城市化率越高、人口密度越低的省份越倾向于经济建设偏向型支出模式；支出分权程度越低、城市化率越低、第三产业占比越高、人口密度越高的省份越倾向于科教文卫偏向型支出模式。

The budget expenditure structure of provincial governments includes four different types with their due specific features: economically focused,educationsciencecultureandhealthfocused,highly balanced,and low balancedEmpirical studies show that these different types of budget expenditure are affected by five different factors: decentralization of expenditure,degree of urbanization,proportion of tertiary industry,local financial resources,and population densityA province with higher degree of decentralization,higher rate of urbanization,and lower population density is more inclined to adopt an economically focused expenditureBy comparison,a province with lower degree of decentralization,lower rate of urbanization,higher proportion of tertiary industry,and higher population density is more inclined to scienceeducationcultureandhealth focused expenditure
Key words: Budget expenditure;Representative model;Provincial government