职工基本养老保险是我国养老保险制度体系的主体组成部分，它由社会统筹与个人账户两部分构成，其中社会统筹部分的财务收支状况是决定制度成败的关键所在。当实现全国统筹以后, 覆盖面扩展、遵缴率提升、基金投资回报率提高、全国社会保障基金补贴支出增加、养老金待遇增长机制调整和法定退休年龄渐进延迟，均会对职工基本养老保险的财务状况产生直接影响。利用长期的养老保险测算模型对社会统筹制度从2015年到2050年的财务状况进行的分析显示，上述六种调整因素将使养老统筹制度在长期中的赤字率水平下降约83%，这将明显改善职工养老保险制度的收支状况。

Social pooling old age insurance is an important pillar for China s social security cause, and its sustainable development is the key to the success of old age insurance. After fulfilling national pooling, there will be six factors, including the realization of full coverage, the improvement of contribution compliance, the increase of the investment return, the subsidy from National Social Security Fund, the redesign of pension indexation and the gradual postponement of retirement age. Based on longrun old age insurance actuarial calculation, this paper analyzes the impact of these factors, appraises the contribution level of each factor and finally puts forward policy suggestions to the system s sustainable development.