中国当前的经济增速放缓具有长期化趋势：在基准情形下，预计中国“十二五”和“十三五”时期的平均潜在经济增速较2000—2010年将分别下滑23个和4个百分点。造成经济增速放缓的原因是：总需求中的出口和投资增速显著放缓；低成本优势逐渐消失和全要素生产率增速显著下降；政府对经济增长的推动作用将可能有所减弱。在中国社会仍然具有较强“增长依赖症”的情况下，经济增速的显著降低将严重威胁社会稳定；同时，经济增速放缓也会造成社会精英的大量流失。目前，应该从两方面来应对经济增速放缓：一是通过行政体制改革促进经济发展方式的转变，在传统的增长动力逐渐衰减的过程中及时为经济增长提供新的动力；二是积极推进社会改革以降低社会稳定对经济高速增长的依赖。

China's economic growth slowdown will continue in the future: in the baseline model, the potential economic growth rate will decline by 23 and 4 percentage points in the 12th and 13th fiveyear plan period compared with the 2000—2010 periodThe reasons are: the growth rate of export and investment will slow down distinctively; low-cost advantage will cease to exist and the growth rate of TFP will decline; governments role in promoting economic growth may be weakenedUnder the situation that the society still has strong “growth dependency syndrome” in the future, the large reduction of the economic growth will seriously undermine social stability, and economic growth slowdown will also cause a huge loss of social elitesThere are two ways to deal with the challenges of economic growth slowdown: First, transform the economic growth mode by administrative system reform to prevent a “hard landing”, and secondly, promote social reform to strengthen social stability and reduce the dependence of the society on economic growth