Historical Division and Analytical Framework of Long Wave of Economy:New Expansion from the Perspective of Historical Materialism

HU Leming1,LIU Gang2,GAO Guiai2

Journal of Renmin University of China ›› 2019, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5) : 89-103.

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主管:教育部
主办:中国人民大学
ISSN 1000-5420  CN 11-1476/C
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Journal of Renmin University of China ›› 2019, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5) : 89-103.

Historical Division and Analytical Framework of Long Wave of Economy:New Expansion from the Perspective of Historical Materialism

  • HU Leming1,LIU Gang2,GAO Guiai2
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Abstract

The method of returning to history is an important direction for the development of longwave economic theory in the past half centuryHowever,due to the lack of systematic research compatible with intermediate level analysis and the essentiality of technological revolution,the longwave theory of Marxist economy has failed to establish a“comprehensive methodological basis”for accurately grasping the contradictory movement between productive forces and production relationsReturning to the perspective of historical materialism,this paper regards technological revolution and industrial revolution as the middlelevel concepts to analyze the longwave economy,and reconstructs the political and economic analysis framework of the longwave theoryBased on this framework,in order to avoid the“mismatch”between the long wave of economy and the cycle of technological revolution,we adjust the traditional method of dividing the long wave of economy from the trough to the trough to the method of dividing the long wave of economy proposed by Perez from the peak to the peak,thus developing the historical division of the long wave of economy from the traditional five“inverted V”to six“V”long wavesIn this way,each technological revolution corresponds to a“V”long wave,and the technological revolution and institutional evolution in each industrial revolution corresponds to two“W”long wave trends,thus attributing the essence of the long wave of economy to the external manifestation of the evolution trend of the mode of productionThe long wave theory should not only reveal the decisive role of productivity in the final analysis and the interaction mechanism between technology and economy,but also reveal the longterm
changes of politics and culture and their laws of action,so as to serve the medium and longterm economic development planning and help the smooth implementation of
the“twostep” strategy

Key words

Long wave economic theory;Kandradyev cycle  / Industrial revolution  / Materialist conception of history

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HU Leming1,LIU Gang2,GAO Guiai2. Historical Division and Analytical Framework of Long Wave of Economy:New Expansion from the Perspective of Historical Materialism[J]. Journal of Renmin University of China, 2019, 33(5): 89-103
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