In recent years, aging population has been accelerating in China, which exacerbates the decline in Chinas potential economic growth to a certain extentThrough qualitative and quantitative analysis, the paper finds that the elder group under the current definition has a great potential in increasing labor supply, which can improve the labor force participation and release a sizeable “sunset dividend” through the implementation of postponing the retirement age policyThis paper uses the Six Census data for the first time to estimate the labor participation rate curve along with age, then simulate and analyze the potential impacts of two incremental retirement schemes on labor supply and economic growth, respectivelyThe results show that the implementation of progressive retirement age policy can significantly improve the labor supply and economic growth in ChinaParticularly during the first five periods of the implementation of the policy, it can increase labor supply by 200-300 million and GDP growth by more than 05 percentage points for each periodIt can effectively alleviate the adverse impacts of the decline of workingage population on Chinas labor supply and economic growth, thus providing a valuable time window for completing the conversion from a quantitydominated demographic dividend to a qualitydominated demographic dividend in China
LIU Xiao-guang1,LIU Yuan-chun2.
“Sunset Dividend” in China: Impacts of Postponed Retirement on Labor Supply and Economic Growth[J]. Journal of Renmin University of China, 2017, 31(5): 68-79