目前，出口目的地不确定性上升是中国出口企业面临的最大风险。本文考察出口目的地不确定性变化对中国出口企业创新行为的影响，并重点分析企业出口市场转换、出口产品转换对出口目的地不确定性和出口企业创新之间关系影响的差异性。研究结果表明：出口目的地不确定性上升会显著抑制中国出口企业的创新，虽然企业转换出口市场、转换出口产品都会显著降低出口目的地不确定性对出口企业创新的不利影响，但是，不同出口转换策略对企业创新的调节效应具有较大的差异性，出口市场转换的调节效应总体上比出口产品转换更为明显。另外，出口转换对企业创新的调节效应具有企业异质性和创新异质性。本文的政策启示是，政府要高度重视企业出口转换特别是出口市场转换策略及其战略意义，挖掘企业出口转换策略的政策功能，确保出口稳定以及企业高质量创新，从而获得有效应对外部不确定性风险和高质量发展的双重效应。

The increasing uncertainty of export destinations is a big risk facing current Chinese export companiesThis article examines the impact of the changes of the export destination uncertainty on the innovation of export companies,focusing on the differences of the relationship between the effects of export market and export product and the export destination uncertainty and export companies innovationThis study finds that: (1) the increase of export destination uncertainty will significantly hurt the innovation of Chinese export companies;(2) the change of export markets and products will significantly reduce the adverse impact of export destination uncertainty on the innovation of export companies,although the effects of different export changes on the innovation of export companies vary;and (3) the moderating effects of export market and product changes on the innovation of export companies are differentThis article suggests that government should pay special attention to the changes of export,especially to the strategies of export market changes and their strategic significance,explore the policy function of the export change strategy,and ensure the stability of exports and the highquality innovation of export companies,so as to effectively deal with external uncertain risks and highquality development