HU Leming1,LIU Gang2,GAO Guiai2
Journal of Renmin University of China.
The method of returning to history is an important direction for the development of longwave economic theory in the past half centuryHowever,due to the lack of systematic research compatible with intermediate level analysis and the essentiality of technological revolution,the longwave theory of Marxist economy has failed to establish a“comprehensive methodological basis”for accurately grasping the contradictory movement between productive forces and production relationsReturning to the perspective of historical materialism,this paper regards technological revolution and industrial revolution as the middlelevel concepts to analyze the longwave economy,and reconstructs the political and economic analysis framework of the longwave theoryBased on this framework,in order to avoid the“mismatch”between the long wave of economy and the cycle of technological revolution,we adjust the traditional method of dividing the long wave of economy from the trough to the trough to the method of dividing the long wave of economy proposed by Perez from the peak to the peak,thus developing the historical division of the long wave of economy from the traditional five“inverted V”to six“V”long wavesIn this way,each technological revolution corresponds to a“V”long wave,and the technological revolution and institutional evolution in each industrial revolution corresponds to two“W”long wave trends,thus attributing the essence of the long wave of economy to the external manifestation of the evolution trend of the mode of productionThe long wave theory should not only reveal the decisive role of productivity in the final analysis and the interaction mechanism between technology and economy,but also reveal the longterm
changes of politics and culture and their laws of action,so as to serve the medium and longterm economic development planning and help the smooth implementation of
the“twostep” strategy